It is a busy week for central banks, with the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) all on the agenda. Only the Fed meeting is expected to see any substantive changes to policy, but the others will remain interesting given the potential for changes in language or outlook.

We also get plenty of UK data, as the pound looks to continue its advance made over the past five weeks. Big corporate numbers are confined to half-year figures from Ashtead, Dixons Carphone and Sports Direct, together with trading statements from Bellway, Bunzl and Petrofac.

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No Major Tier 1 Releases Expected


9.30am – UK CPI (November): expected to rise to 3.1% YoY from 3%, and 0.2% MoM from 0.1%. Core CPI expected to increase to 2.8% from 2.7% YoY. Market to watch: GBP crosses

10am – German ZEW index (December): economic sentiment forecast to fall to 16 from 18.7. Market to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US PPI (November): forecast to hold at 0.4% MoM. Market to watch: USD crosses

11.30pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (December): expected to fall to 97 from 99.7. Market to watch: AUD crosses


9.30am – UK employment data: October unemployment rate to hold at 4.3%, while claimant count rises by 2300 in November from 1100 in October. Average earnings expected to rise by 2.1^ In October from 2.2% in September. Market to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US CPI (November): expected to hold at 2% YoY and rise to 0.3% MoM from 0.1%, while core CPI expected to weaken to 1.7% YoY from 1.8%. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 8 December): stockpiles forecast to rise by 1.7 million barrels after rising by 6.8 million a week earlier. Market to watch: Brent, WTI

7pm – FOMC rate decision & statement (press conference 7.30pm): the Fed is expected to raise rates to 1.5% from 1.25%. Watch out for further commentary on future policy, and comments on the winding down of QE purchases. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses

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12.30am – Australia employment data (November): unemployment rate forecast to rise to 5.5% from 5.4%, while 17,500 jobs created from 3700 a month earlier. Market to watch: AUD crosses

12.30am – Japan mfg PMI (December, flash): expected to drop to 53.2 from 53.6. Market to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses

2am – China retail sales (November): forecast to rise 10.2% YoY from 10%. Market to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (December, flash): further improvement here will support EUR pairs. Market to watch:  eurozone indices, EUR crosses

9.30am – UK retail sales (November): forecast to fall 0.6% from 0.3% YoY, and rise 0.1% from 0.3% MoM. Market to watch:  GBP crosses

12pm – BoE decision: no change in rates expected, after the increase last month. Further hawkish commentary could lift GBP further. Market to watch:  FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses

12.45pm – ECB decision (1.30pm press conference): the bank is expected to leave policy unchanged, but any commentary around potential changes to QE could lead to euro volatility. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – US retail sales (November): initial  jobless claims (w/e 9 December): retail sales expected to rise 0.3% MoM from 0.2%, while 236K claims expected, in line with the previous week. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (December, flash): manufacturing PMI forecast to rise to 54.1 from 53.9, and services PmI to hit 55.2 from 54.5. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses


1.30pm – US Empire State mfg index (December): forecast to rise to 26 from 19.4. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Source: Chris Beauchamp

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