It is a busy week both economically and on the corporate front. There’s big numbers from China, such as gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) figures.

A focus on UK data is a highlight in terms of economic news, while earnings season is moving into higher gear, as US banks and several tech giants issue their numbers.


2.30am – China CPI (September): forecast to rise to 1.6% YoY from 1.8% previously, and 0.4% MoM, in line with the month before. Market to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

1.30pm – US Empire mfg index (October): expected to fall to 20.8 from 24.4. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses


1.30am – RBA minutes: likely to influence AUD depending on hawkish or dovish tone. Market to watch: AUD crosses

9.30am – UK CPI (September): forecast to rise to 3.1% from 2.9% YoY, but rise by only 0.3% compared to 0.6% MoM. Core CPI forecast to rise 2.8% from 2.7% YoY a month earlier. Market to watch: GBP crosses

10am – eurozone CPI (September, final): YoY reading expected to remain at 1.5%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

10am – German ZEW (October): economic sentiment index expected to fall to 12.5 from 17. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses


9.30am – UK employment data: September claimant count forecast to rise by 8500 from a 2800 fall a month earlier, while August unemployment forecast to be 4.4% from 4.3%. Average earnings (inc bonus) expected to rise 1.7% from 2.1% a month earlier. Market to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses

1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (September): permits expected to fall 0.4% from 3.4%, while starts forecast to fall 0.5% from 0.8%. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 13 October): previous week saw a drop of 2.7 million barrels. Market to watch: Brent, WTI


1.30pm – Australia employment data (September): unemployment rate expected to remain at 5.6%, while 14,400 jobs expected to be created, from 40,100 the month before. Market to watch: AUD crosses

3am – China GDP (Q3): QoQ rate expected to slow to 1.4% from 1.7%, while YoY figures fall to 6.8% from 6.9%. Market to watch: China indices, CNY crosses

9.30am – UK retail sales (September): sales expected to rise 0.3% MoM from 1%, while YoY rate slows to 1.1% from 2.4%. Market to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 14 October), Philadelphia Fed index (October): claims forecast to fall to 236K from 243K, while Philly Fed index to drop to 20 from 23.8. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses


1.30pm – Canada CPI (September), retail sales (August): YoY price growth forecast to rise to 1.6% from 1.4%, and remain at 0.1% MoM. Retail sales forecast to hold at 0.4%. Market to watch: CAD crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (September): MoM rate expected to improve to -1.5% from -1.7%. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Source: Chris Beauchamp

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