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Sunday 24th September
All day | EUR | German Federal elections
After risks earlier in the year Chancellor Merkel is now expected to have a decisive win.
Monday 25th September
2 p.m. | EUR | ECB President Draghi speaks
Although speaking a couple of times this week this is probably the more important as he testifies in front of the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.
Tuesday 26 September
5:45 p.m. | USD | Fed Chair Yellen speaks
Whenever Yellen takes the stage everybody listens but after her very optimistic statement last week it’s hard to see how this will have a significant impact. The topic being discussed is Inflation, Uncertainty and Monetary policy, so it is quite topical. I can’t see any further forward guidance being released beyond last week but we could see some volatility around the speech.
Wednesday 27th September
1:30 p.m. | USD | Core Durable Goods | Prior 0.6% | Expected 0.2%
Unlikely to significantly move the market but is a good indication of confidence in the economy as these are high-priced items that either consumers or businesses only invest in if they are feeling optimistic.
9 p.m. | NZD | Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy statement | Prior 1.75% | Expected 1.75%
It would be a huge shock if the RBNZ changed interest rates at present and the vast majority of analysts expect this to not be the case. The RBNZ has already exhibited concerns around the value of the New Zealand dollar and with Australia last week rolling out any short-term interest rate increases it would be extremely unlikely for the RBNZ to act despite recent positive figures around both growth and inflation.
Thursday 28th September
1:30 p.m. | USD | Final GDP | Prior 3.0% | Expected 3.1%
The least volatile release when it comes to GDP figures from the US as this is simply confirming previous releases. There is expectation for a slight increase but not significant. Watch to see if this supports the hawkish comments last week from the Fed.
Friday 29th September
2:45 a.m. | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | Prior 51.6 | Expected 51.5
With China’s credit rating being downgraded last week it’s important to start watching China as the 2nd largest economy in the world, it can have significant impacts on global wealth.
9:30 a.m. | GBP | Final GDP | Prior 0.3% | Expected 0.3%
Much like the US final GDP it’s unlikely to have a material impact on the value of sterling unless we see a significant revision. At the moment sterling is far more reactive to Brexit discussions than it is economic releases.
10 a.m. | EUR | CPI | Prior 1.5% | Expected 1.6%
Probably the most important release of the week as we look to see if the Eurozone continues to strengthen economically. There are expectations for a slightly better inflation figure than last month but the release be even stronger than expect significant buying of the Euro.
1:30 p.m. | CAD | GDP | Prior 0.3% | Expected 0.3%
Canada is unique in releasing monthly GDP figures. We have seen the Canadian economy strengthen recently with continued talks around interest rate rises, this could begin to set a tone for expectations in December.
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